Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.London House Prices Bubble, Debt Slavery, Crimea 2.0 - Russia Ukraine Annexation - Nadeem_Walayat
2. Gold And Silver – 2014 Coud Be A Yawner; Be Prepared For A Surprise - Michael_Noonan
3.Sheffield, Rotherham Roma Benefits Plague, Ch5 Documentary Gypsies on Benefits & Proud - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Glaring Q.E. Failure Spotted - Money Velocity Is Falling Rapidly - Jim_Willie_CB
5.Don't Miss the Boat on Big Biotech Catalysts: Keith Markey - Keith Markey
6.Gold Prices 2014: Do What Goldman Does, Not What It Says - David Zeiler
7.Bitcoin Price Strong Appreciation to Be Followed by Declines? - Mike_McAra
8.Gold Preparing to Launch as U.S. Dollar Drops to Key Support - Jason_Hamlin
9.Doctor Doom on the Fiat Money Empire Coming Financial Crisis - Andrew_McKillop
10.The Real Purpose Of QE - It’s Not Employment - Darryl_R_Schoon
Last 72 Hrs
G-20 and the US Tell the Bank of Japan to End Quantitative Easing - 23rd Apr 14
How to Get in the Trading Game and Profit - 23rd Apr 14
Fed Follies, U.S. Housing Market Fiasco - 23rd Apr 14
What Will December 31, 2014 Financial Headlines Look Like? - 23rd Apr 14
Why Gasoline Prices are Surging Again - 22nd Apr 14
Cold War 2.0 - 22nd Apr 14
The JIS – Junk Ideology Syndrome - 22nd Apr 14
How to Avoid Losing All Your Money - 22nd Apr 14
Silver Up, Stocks S&P Down - 22nd Apr 14
U.S. Mainstream Media Propaganda Setting the Stage for War With Pakistan - 22nd Apr 14
U.S. Interest Rates are NOT Rising! - 22nd Apr 14
A Crisis vs. the REAL Crisis: Keep Your Eye on the Debt Ball - 22nd Apr 14
Bitcoin Implications of Lack of Price Action - 22nd Apr 14
Japan - The Twilight Of The Rising Sun - 22nd Apr 14
Is This What a Credit Bubble Looks Like? - 22nd Apr 14
The Dark Side Of The Silver Mining Industry - 21st Apr 14
Strong U.S. Dollar Rally Could Pull Rug From Under Gold and Silver - 21st Apr 14
Silver Feeble Rally Fails to Hold Breakout, Falling Back Towards Support - 21st Apr 14
Stock Market Smart Money – All Out or More to Go? - 21st Apr 14
Fast Rising Pump Prices Counterattack - 21st Apr 14
Extreme Climate Change And Life On This Planet - 21st Apr 14
Gold and Silver Stocks Sitting Tight - 21st Apr 14
Stock Market Minor Correction Imminent - 21st Apr 14
Gold and Silver - Counting Blessings and Tender Mercies - 20th Apr 14 - Jesse
The CIA Through The Looking-Glass - 20th Apr 14 - Stephen_Merrill
Gold And Silver - Gann, Cardinal Grand Cross, A Mousetrap, And Wrong Expectations - 20th Apr 14 - Michael Noonan
Nikkei Stock Market - Sell Japan - 20th Apr 14 - WavePatternTraders

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Upside Down Gold Trend and the Great Credit Contraction

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009 May 08, 2009 - 06:15 AM GMT

By: David_Morgan

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJohn Exter was an internationally known banker and a gold bug in the true sense of the word. He graduated from Harvard and was present when Keynesian economics first came to the fore. He lived through World War I, witnessed the founding of the Federal Reserve, the Great Depression, and the establishment of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He also presided over the New York Federal Reserve Bank. Mr. Exter’s work can be found on the Internet with a simple Google search.


One of his most famous quotes is, “The U.S. and world economies are on the threshold of a deflationary crash that will make the 1930s look like a boom. Gold will be the single best investment to own. Buy it now while it’s still cheap.”

A pyramid is one of the most stable structures ever envisioned by humans. However, Mr. Exter is perhaps most famous for his inverted pyramid of how a debt-based monetary system is constructed.

Logically, an up side down pyramid implies one of the most “unstable” structures one can imagine.

Mr. Exter believed there would be a deflationary collapse rather than an inflationary blow-off. He stated that creditors would move down the pyramid out of the most illiquid debts. Looking at the pyramid, we almost have to hold back some amuse­ment, from the standpoint of what was known in his day as "illiquid" compared to the casino fiasco, presently.

When Mr. Exter constructed his model, the top of the pyramid had junk bonds, failing banks, failing insurance companies, and, we might add, failed investment banks/brokerage houses. Creditors will get out of weak debts and move down the debt pyramid, to the very bottom! Near the bottom we find currency (dollar bills), even though they pay no interest. Next above currency are Treasury bills, issued by the government and backed by the Federal Reserve. They are almost as safe as currency notes, plus they pay interest. However, you have to liquidate the bills to get money of some sort to buy something.

The higher debtors sit in the pyramid, the less liquid they are, and this is why the Fed has become the “buyer of last resort.” No one wants to buy any of these toxic assets, and furthermore, no one really can price many of them, because in fact some are truly worthless. According to Mr. Exter, this explains why we are headed for deflation.  Creditors will move out of debts high in the debt pyramid as many of them will fail through defaults & bankruptcies--that is deflationary.

At the bottom of the debt pyramid sits gold, the asset that needs no bank, Fed, or human “blessing” of any kind to be valued by both the individual and the banking system (although they hate to admit it) alike.

Has the rush to gold started? Yes, but barely, because only recently have we seen a nation admit they are moving into gold. China and of course the gold bugs have been buying since the recent bottom in 2000, but this pales in what this writer sees ahead; now that the structure is failing, more and more nations, institutions, and individuals will be heading to the bottom for safety and liquidity (gold).
A new e-book titled The Great Credit Contraction has been written by a friend named Trace Mayer, J.D., and it gives us more insights into the current situation.

As can clearly been seen from a more modern form of the debt pyramid below, the broadest and most unstable “asset” class is the derivatives at the top. This is what is causing the current worldwide financial adjustment as the central banks continue to assure the markets that everything is going to be just fine, and they pump “money/credit” into the system until …??

CREDIT CRISIS AUTOPSY

The Great Credit Contraction is fine analytic work from Trace. He comes to the gold community with a different slant and background. He is a legal scholar with an empha­sis on the Constitution, focusing on gold and currency issues. In his e-book, one can read about the historical significance of a crisis that will surely reshape the world. The global economy is built on an illusion currency that is evaporating before our very eyes. This book is an autopsy of the current worldwide systems and begins with financial history, discusses the current great deflationary credit contraction, projects the future environment, and concludes with suggestions on how to protect, preserve, and generate wealth in this challenging time. An appendix analyzes important topics. Click here to order.

It is an honor to be.

Sincerely,

David Morgan

Mr. Morgan has followed the silver market for more than thirty years. He wrote the book, Get the Skinny on Silver Investing. Much of his Web site, Silver-Investor.com, is devoted to education about the precious metals, it is both a free site and does have a members only section. To receive full access to The Morgan Report click the hyperlink.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are not intended to be taken as investment advice. It is to be taken as opinion only and I encourage you to complete your own due diligence when making an investment decision.

David Morgan Archive

© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014